Scene from Western Illinois University’s Mock Election
IN OUR LAST ISSUE WE PUBLISHED AN ARTICLE BY VERO BEACH RESIDENT STEVE MEYER WHO, USING HIS OWN METHODOLOGY, PREDICTED THAT A DEMOCRAT WOULD BECOME THE NEXT U.S. PRESIDENT with an Electoral College vote of 347 to 191.
(We boosted Mr. Meyer’s article on our Vero Communique Facebook page and received well over 300 comments from across the country.)
While Mr. Meyer predicted a democrat, who will become the winner?
If you haven’t already read about it, are you ready to find out?
Since 1975 Western Illinois University (WIU), home of the Fighting Leather Necks has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election.
Organized by Dr. Richard J. Hardy, Director of Centennial Honors College and a professor of political science, WIU holds a mock election a year before the actual election.
Dr. Richard J. Hardy
WIU’s mock election was conducted over 10 sessions on the Macomb Campus between October 10 and November 2, 2015. The sessions simulated the Iowa caucuses, State primaries, nominating conventions and the Electoral College vote. Thousands of WIU students participated.
The University claims it is “the largest and most elaborate mock presidential election simulation in the Country.”
According to Dr. Hardy, “Once again, this year, students from every college at Western and virtually every school and department on campus participated by helping to organize the Mock Presidential Election (MPE) and attending the sessions. The MPE not only showed them the importance of civic engagement, but also provided them with an in-depth understanding of how the entire presidential election process works.”
“Western Illinois University is at the forefront nationally for preparing students to be active and contributing citizens. The MPE embodies Western’s core values of academic excellence, educational opportunity, personal growth and social responsibility in a dynamic, engaging and real-world manner,” added Paul Schlag, associate director of Western’s Centennial Honors College.
WIU students accurately predicted Jimmy Carter’s upset victory in 1975.
They accurately predicted Barack Obama’s election in 2007 and 2011. In 2007 when they predicted Obama’s victory he was down 18% in the Iowa polls against Hillary Clinton.
So what are their predictions for 2016?
On the Republican side, Jeb Bush will win the nomination and select Marco Rubio as his running mate.
But Bernie Sanders will become the next President along side Martin O’Malley, who he chose as his Vice President.
WIU predicts Bernie Sanders will defeat Hillary Clinton in 22 out of 26 primary states. She will survive past Super Tuesday but will be out of the race by March 2016.
Bernie and Martin will then “demolish” Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in the general election with 404 of the Electoral College votes of the 270 needed to win.
As we are writing this article on Tuesday, January 12, 2016 Monmouth University just released a poll indicating Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by 14% in New Hampshire, 54% to 39%.
It is worth noting that WIU has not been 100% accurate in predicting the Vice Presidential candidate. They predicted Barack Obama would pick John Edwards over Joe Biden, but that was before the Edwards scandal.