The Guardian Emissions Curve
IF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO RISE, SCIENTISTS HAVE WARNED THE EARTH WILL PASS A THRESHOLD WHERE GLOBAL WARMING WILL BECOME “CATASTROPHIC AND IRREVERSIBLE”
The threshold is estimated as a rise in temperature of 35.6 degrees Fahrenheit but based on current data, the earth is heading for a rise of approximately 41 degrees Fahrenheit.
According to http://www.fossilfreemit.org ” getting off that curb,” as illustrated above, “will require an energy revolution at least as profound as the one that got us on it.”
From November 30 to December 11, 2015 representatives from 195 nations of the United Nations will come together at a Paris Conference to discuss whether an a new global agreement can be reached to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the “catastrophic and irreversible” conditions.
For further reading on how conference participants will be able to project the impact to reduced/increased immersions please access this link:
The new agreement would determine what would happen a decade after 2020, when the current agreements run out.
The summit is called the 21st Conference on Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21). According to an article in rfi english by Rosslyn Hyams on August 6, 2015, “The COP works on climate change which is induced by human behavior.”
Climate change negotiations were first started in 1976, but the Rio talks in 1992 — the Earth Summit, as this conference came to be known — established the UNFCCC.”
The last UN climate change summit was in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009.
Although the world’s developed and biggest developing countries agreed to limit their emissions, a legally binding treaty was not executed and countries not meeting their targets were not sanctioned.
President Obama will not be attending the Paris Conference, because according to The Guardian, the Copenhagen conference ended “in scenes of chaos and vicious recriminations.”
The new COP21 agreement would be based on pledges, or targets, nations make to reduce their emissions. These pledges are called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).
Nations responsible for two-third’s of greenhouse gas emissions have already submitted their targets. This link will take you to the targets of 79 nations:
The biggest emitters are the European Union (EU), the United States and China.
The EU has pledged to cut its emissions 40% by 2030 compared to its 1990 levels. The U.S has pledged to cut its emissions 26-28% by 2025 compared to 2005 levels and China has repeated its previously stated goal of cutting emissions by 40-45% by 2020 from 2005 levels.
One problem is India, the world’s fourth-largest polluter, largely because of the size of its population, because it has not agreed to set a target.
According to an article in the October 10 – October 16, 2015 article in The Economist, “India has promised only to limit the amount of carbon dioxide per unit of GDP; a relative target, not an absolute one. This might seem like a cop out.
There are plenty of other reasons why India should curb pollution. Smokey indoor air is one of the countries biggest killers, because hundreds of millions cook by burning wood and cow dung. Outdoors, Delhi’s air is filthier than Beijing’s.”
New Delhi’s Air Pollution – http://www.cnn.com
Another problem is the cost to reach the nations targets. Poorer countries cannot afford to invest in clean technologies to help them reduce their emissions. They want wealthier countries to provide financial assistance.
At Copenhagen, wealthy countries agreed to provide $ 30 billion in aid to to the poorer countries and that by 2020 at least $ 100 billion/year.
In a related piece, a study released on October 26, 2015 by Loyola’s Jerimy Pal and MIT’s Elfa A. B. Eltahir in Nature: Climate Change, “The Persian Gulf maybe to hot for human survival by 2090.”
Dubai Skyline / October 5, 2015 / http://www.washingtonpost.com
According to Kelsey Campbell-Dollaghan filed to Permanent Heat Waves on 10/26/2015, “Their results show that if climate change continues without reform over the coming decades, much of the Middle East will regularly endure extraordinary heat.”
Further, “They used a type of measurement called ‘wet bulb’ heat, which is a complex concept that the authors simplify by describing it as a combined measure of temperature and humidity, or ‘mugginess.’
They pegged the maximum survivable temperature at six full hours of 35 Celsius or 95 Fahrenheit. Anything above that “would probably be intolerable even for the fittest of humans,” they wrote.
Further, Ms. Kelsey Campbell-Dollaghan wrote: “Which is what makes their projections so disturbing. Using RCP 8.5–aka the IDGAF scenario where emissions continue at the current rate–their model showed that a large portion of the Persian Gulf would exceed that maximum threshold of wet bulb survivability, especially over the Red Sea and the Gulf. They give a couple of reasons for this hot spot, like the fact there’s rarely any cloud cover. And it’s also worse because it has a low rate of ‘albedo,’ a term that describes how much sunlight reflects back up into the atmosphere.
In this super-heated future, it would be extremely dangerous to spend time outside.
‘Even the most basic outdoor activities are likely to be severely impacted,’ say the authors, who note that the conditions would have ‘severe consequences’ for millions of pilgrims who make the Hajj to Mecca, which already uses substantial cooling technology like misters and air conditioners to cool pilgrims.”
Today’s temperature in Kuwait City (October 28, 2015) is 84% Fahrenheit but feels like 92.
“And this isn’t a distant future: It’s one that many of us will live to see–if, again, carbon emissions continue unabated.”